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by Rubina Karki/Nepal Edited by Musa Muhammad Tanko/Nigeria  Graphic Art by John Carl T. Alonsagay/ATO - ClimatEducate Project The UN’s most anticipated conference on climate change, preferably called COP had its latest session in December of 2019. Why was the conference so important? Well, these conferences are particularly significant in climate change negotiations. The long-running 2degree Celsius limit and countries who take part in these negotiations with pledges and agreements could help determine the world’s future: to which direction the world is heading. Many climate activists had high hopes for COP25. Climate activists from Nepal were posting statuses on Facebook about how disappointing the sessions were. Youth activists all over the world expressed their shared grief to how the leaders keep on failing us. Rightfully in saying so, even after two weeks of the sessions, many issues were unsolved. 2015’s Paris Agreement was a milestone in the climate pledges with many countries agreeing to a 2degree Celsius limit. The year 2019 was a hopeful one because countries agreed in 2015 to revisit their climate pledges by 2020. Though this COP didn’t go as planned, there’s always going to be the next one, and… the next… the next... the next. But that doesn’t mean that we have so much time, as every year we waste is the year that takes us further away from the 2degree Celsius limit. But why is the 2 degree limit so important? The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992 with the main objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions concentration in a limit that results in sustainable economic growth with no anthropogenic interference to the Earth’s climate system. This means that the aim is to protect the planet and hence the commitment. In order to make the objective function, the UNFCCC agreed to limit the rise in the mean surface temperature below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Even with the annual happening of COPs since the mid-nineties and pledging commitments to reduce the Greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been reported that between the year 2000-2010, there was an approximate addition of 1 billion tonnes of GHG (CO2 equivalent) with the main culprits being carbon dioxide and methane from fossil fuel emission through heat and electricity generation, transportation sector and land use. In 2010, the annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions stood at 49 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent which is the level of emissions per year in 2010.  Data Visuals from Climate Interactive If we look at the RCP trajectory, in order to limit the temperature to below 2-degree Celsius, we have to limit the GHG emission to between 430-480 ppm (which is about 66% likelihood to remain below 2-degree Celsius) by 2100. But, if we follow the business as usual (BAU), then there is an increase in temperature between 2.5-degree Celsius to 5.5 degrees Celsius (by 2100). The global warming of 4-degree Celsius or more would result in irreversible and extremely severe impacts globally that would threaten the continuation of economic development in the future. Climate change is indeed a natural process, with the Greenhouse gas effect rising the Earth’s global temperature naturally, it is the anthropogenic interference that accelerates it. If we are able to limit the rise in temperature to 2-degree Celsius, there would still be about 0.3m to 0.8m rise in sea level by 2100. Even if we limit the temperature by 2-degree Celsius, the rise in the temperature would result in a sea-level rise of 1-6m in the long run. So, the main role of limiting the temperature to the 2-degree limit is to reduce human interference in the natural Greenhouse effect. With 4-degree Celsius rise in the Earth’s average temperature, there’s a high probability of rising in sea level by at least 2.5m. Likewise, it has been estimated that there has been an increase of acidity level in the oceans by 30% as of 2010 compared to the pre-industrial level and with a 4-degree Celsius rise, the percentage would increase to 150.  The rapid rise in sea level, acidification of oceans and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves or floods are some among many consequences of the BAU trajectory (Reference scenario). Global warming and increasing concentrations of GHG emissions would cause a significant amount of stress to the marine ecosystems with added stress from pollution, overfishing and oil leaks. There is also rising stress on coral reefs. With rising temperatures, extreme weather events would no longer be rare. We’ve already been facing this gradually. Cyclone frequency in the coastal parts of the world has been increasing, and so are the heat waves. The rise in temperature of 4-degree Celsius and more would increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation as well as droughts and floods which could induce the breakdown of critical services like infrastructures or water supply, health services and huge human as well as economic loss. You can check out a more extensive and detailed analysis of the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The report further tells that globally averaged combined land and ocean temperature as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 degree Celsius over the period of 1880-2012 when multiple independently produced datasets exist. In simple words, it means that the earth’s temperature has already risen by around 1 degree Celsius while we have kept the maximum temperature limit of 2-degree Celsius. Future emission scenarios: Above, we discussed what would happen if there were a 2-degree rise in temperature or 4-degree Celsius rise in temperature. Here, we talk about what would happen if climate policies were implemented. 1. What if no climate policies were ratified and implemented? This is the likelihood of an increase in the global temperature by 4.1-4.8-degree Celsius by 2100 in comparison to pre-industrial levels with CO2 concentration exceeding more than 750 ppm by the end of the century. 2. What if we followed current climate policies? The IPCC report and the Earth System Dynamics study confirm what many scientists have been warning for years: 2 degrees is not a “safe” threshold. Negative impacts are already underway and will only get worse. Even if we implement the climate policies that insist on a 2-degree Celsius limit, there is a likelihood of a 3.1-3.7-degree Celsius rise in temperature by 2100. 3. What about the national pledges that are actually put into action? There would be an increase in temperature by 2.6-3.2-degree Celsius even if all the countries were to implement their national pledges agreed during the Paris Agreement. 4. To maintain 2-degree Celsius consistency? This would need a significant change in the range of emission pathways with pledges better and extensive than the Paris Agreement. A fun fact: the 2-degree Celsius limit is not a recent discovery. It started way back in 1989 when the advisory group to the UNEP released a report with a conclusion that the increase in the mean surface temperature of 2-degree Celsius is ‘an upper limit beyond which the risks of grave damage to ecosystems and of non-linear responses are expected to increase rapidly. Why is COP26 so important then? COP25 was a disappointment to all the climate activists as it didn’t lead to consensus in a number of decisions, even though, positively speaking there was an agreement in reducing GHG emissions. SO, each nation has devised their plan to reduce their emission by 2020 COP conference in Glasgow. Hence, the role of COP26 is going to be a significant turning point after the Paris agreement on whether or not we will resolve these issues and work together in limiting the rising temperature to well below 2-degree Celsius.  Data Visuals from OurWorldinData.org REFERENCES
THE AUTHORRubina Karki is one of the co-founders of the ATO - ClimatEducate Project in 2016. She currently pursues disaster management and resilience for her graduate school studies in Bangladesh. She is also a music artist and an environmental activist.
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